Winnemucca, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS65 KLKN 231405
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
705 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 704 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

* Warming trend thru the week

* Isolated dry convection in and near the Jarbidge Wilderness
  Tuesday afternoon

* Afternoon breezes the latter half of the week

&&


.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The frost advisory has been canceled early as temperatures are
rebounding into the upper 30s to low 40s this morning. No other
changes are being made.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 137 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level trof resides over the region
today and Tuesday before gradually shifting to a zonal, and
subsequently a southwesterly flow pattern as a low amplitude upper
trof looks to be situated over the PacNW by the latter half of the
week. Weather will be fair today and tonight with daytime high
temperatures in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to
upper 40s, mid 30s in he typical colder valleys.

By Tuesday, numerical model guidance has indicated better
instability under the upper trof over Elko County. However,
moisture availability will be a major limiting factor in the
production of any diurnally driven convection. Current
indications are for cumulus buildups in and near Elko County
though isolated dry showers and thunderstorms have been added to
the forecast in and near the Jarbidge wilderness with the higher
elevation locations to spots most likely to see convection.
Otherwise weather will be dry thru the week with afternoon breezes
by the latter half of the week.

Warming trend continues thru the week and daytime high
temperatures look to be widespread in the 90s by Friday or
Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in
regard to the warming trend thru the week. Forecast confidence
more moderate on dry convection for Tuesday afternoon as numerical
guidance has only recently indicated there being enough
instability for such activity. PWAT values progged to be
borderline also adds to the uncertainty of dry convection
Tuesday.

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today and
tonight. Winds generally less than 12kts today, with the
exception of KWMC KELY and KTPH where gusts up to around 20kts are
expected for a few hours. Clouds across Central Nevada this
morning at FL150 to FL200 increase and lower to around FL100 to
FL150 through the day, which will expand up into northeastern NV
including KEKO and KENV this afternoon. Dry condition persist.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the
ASOS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Fair weather across the forecast area today and tonight though
latest numerical guidance indicates a better likelihood for
isolated dry showers and thunderstorms in and near the Jarbidge
Wilderness on Tuesday afternoon with the higher elevation
locations the spots most likely to see convection. Cumulus
buildups will be the main fare and coverage of any dry convection
will be less than 15%. Otherwise low afternoon relative humidity
returns this week with readings widespread less than 15% by
Wednesday. Afternoon breezes present by the latter half of the
week as well, but winds look to remain below red flag criteria at
this time.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...84